Markets do not announce when a pension fund is accumulating shares, a hedge fund is reducing exposure, or a market maker is adjusting inventory. Traders see only the resulting sequence of prices, trades, spreads, and volumes. Markov algorithms offer one way to organize those observations into probab… Read More

Every serious trader starts the day before the first trade exists. The question is not simply whether price will go up or down. That is the amateur version. The better question is: what is the directional narrative, and what evidence would confirm or invalidate it?Trading the daily bias with… Read More